Connecticut governor's race
Ned Lamont (D) and Ryan Fazio (R) are running for governor of Connecticut. Across 7 polls, the Frothier average has Ned Lamont at 52.5% and Ryan Fazio at 38.5%, which is Lamont +14.0. After blending the polls with how Connecticut usually votes, the estimate is Lamont +14.0. That gives Ned Lamont a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Lamont leads; below it Fazio leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Lamont (D) | Fazio (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 540 LV | 55.0 | 38.0 | Lamont +17.0 |
| co/efficient | Sep 17 | 979 LV | 48.0 | 41.0 | Lamont +7.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 14 | 1,288 LV | 55.0 | 38.0 | Lamont +17.0 |
| GreatBlue Research | Sep 8 | 1,000 RV | 52.2 | 36.5 | Lamont +15.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24 | 803 LV | 52.0 | 37.0 | Lamont +15.0 |
| GreatBlue Research | Jul 26 | LV | 54.8 | 32.7 | Lamont +22.1 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 821 LV | 49.0 | 36.0 | Lamont +13.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.