Maryland governor's race
Wes Moore (D) and Dan Cox (R) are running for governor of Maryland. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Wes Moore at 51.2% and Dan Cox at 24.3%, which is Moore +26.9. After blending the polls with how Maryland usually votes, the estimate is Moore +25.7. That gives Wes Moore a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D. The seat is currently held by Democrats.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Moore leads; below it Cox leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Moore (D) | Cox (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC Institute of Politics | Sep 27 | 776 LV | 51.0 | 24.0 | Moore +27.0 |
| Zenith ResearchD poll | Aug 3 | 800 LV | 58.0 | 31.0 | Moore +27.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. The average is then blended with how the state voted for president in 2024 and today's national generic ballot. Races with many recent polls lean on the polls. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.