Alabama 2 House race
Shomari Figures (D) and Rhett Marques (R) are running for the House seat in Alabama 2. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Shomari Figures at 45.5% and Rhett Marques at 48.1%, which is Marques +2.5. That gives Rhett Marques a 61% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Figures leads; below it Marques leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Figures (D) | Marques (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Aug 31 | LV | 47.0 | 47.0 | Even |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD poll | Jul 30 | 421 LV | 46.0 | 46.0 | Even |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Jun 25 | 400 LV | 44.0 | 45.0 | Marques +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.