Alaska At-Large House race
Bill Hill (I) and Nick Begich (R) are running for the House seat in Alaska At-Large. Across 8 polls, the Frothier average has Bill Hill at 34.9% and Nick Begich at 46.6%, which is Begich +11.7. That gives Nick Begich a 94% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hill leads; below it Begich leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hill (I) | Begich (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1 | 504 LV | 35.1 | 46.6 | Begich +11.5 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 11 | 800 LV | 31.0 | 45.0 | Begich +14.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Sep 6 | 820 LV | 36.6 | 44.2 | Begich +7.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 23 | 1,872 LV | 39.1 | 50.6 | Begich +11.5 |
| GBAO | Aug 5 | 500 LV | 42.0 | 46.0 | Begich +4.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 5 | 1,371 LV | 33.2 | 47.9 | Begich +14.7 |
| Data for Progress | Aug 4 | 605 LV | 37.0 | 47.0 | Begich +10.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 16 | 546 LV | 20.0 | 46.0 | Begich +26.0 |
| Tavern Research | May 27 | 452 LV | 48.0 | 52.0 | Begich +4.0 |
| Change Research | Mar 20 | 624 LV | 13.0 | 44.8 | Begich +31.8 |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 12 | 600 LV | 37.0 | 41.0 | Begich +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.