Arkansas 2 House race
Chris Jones (D) and French Hill (R) are running for the House seat in Arkansas 2. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Chris Jones at 48.0% and French Hill at 44.0%, which is Jones +4.0. That gives Chris Jones a 67% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Jones leads; below it Hill leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Jones (D) | Hill (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | Aug 12 | 1,112 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Jones +4.0 |
| 2040 Strategy GroupD poll | May 8 | LV | 46.0 | 43.0 | Jones +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.