California 1 House race 2026: McGuire vs. Gallagher polls
Mike McGuire (D) and James Gallagher (R) are running for the House seat in California 1. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Mike McGuire at 56.0% and James Gallagher at 41.0%, which is McGuire +15.0. That gives Mike McGuire a 95% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D.
About this race
This is the race for California’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on October 26.
- Mike McGuire (Democrat) is at 56.0% in the Frothier polling average.
- James Gallagher (Republican) is at 41.0% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line McGuire leads; below it Gallagher leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | McGuire (D) | Gallagher (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab | Oct 26 | 444 LV | 56.0 | 41.0 | McGuire +15.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the California 1 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the California 1 House race?
Frothier tracks Mike McGuire (Democrat) against James Gallagher (Republican).
Who is leading the California 1 House race polls?
Mike McGuire +15.0 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (Mike McGuire 56.0%, James Gallagher 41.0%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the California 1 House race?
Frothier rates the race Likely D. Mike McGuire has about a 95% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the California 1 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 26, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.