California 40 House race
Young Kim (R) and Ken Calvert (R) are running for the House seat in California 40. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Young Kim at 42.0% and Ken Calvert at 32.9%, which is Kim +9.0. That gives Young Kim a 86% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Kim leads; below it Calvert leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Kim (R) | Calvert (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots TargetingR poll | Sep 9 | 715 LV | 43.0 | 34.0 | Kim +9.0 |
| Public Opinion StrategiesR poll | Aug 20 | 400 LV | 34.0 | 35.0 | Calvert +1.0 |
| American ViewpointR poll | Jul 12 | LV | 32.0 | 33.0 | Calvert +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.