Florida 14 House race
Kathy Castor (D) and Kevin Steele (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 14. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Kathy Castor at 46.2% and Kevin Steele at 38.5%, which is Castor +7.7. That gives Kathy Castor a 80% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Castor leads; below it Steele leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Castor (D) | Steele (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 15 | 469 LV | 46.2 | 38.5 | Castor +7.7 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.