Florida 16 House race
Kelly Kirschner (D) and Sydney Gruters (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 16. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Kelly Kirschner at 37.9% and Sydney Gruters at 43.6%, which is Gruters +5.7. That gives Sydney Gruters a 75% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Kirschner leads; below it Gruters leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Kirschner (D) | Gruters (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Oct 2 | 530 RV | 39.0 | 43.0 | Gruters +4.0 |
| SEA PollingD poll | Aug 29 | 400 LV | 40.0 | 39.0 | Kirschner +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.