Florida 21 House race 2026: Martin vs. Mast polls
James Martin (D) and Brian Mast (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 21. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has James Martin at 36.8% and Brian Mast at 50.3%, which is Mast +13.5. That gives Brian Mast a 94% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.
About this race
This is the race for Florida’s 21st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on September 25.
- James Martin (Democrat) is at 36.8% in the Frothier polling average.
- Brian Mast (Republican) is at 50.3% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Martin leads; below it Mast leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Martin (D) | Mast (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upswing ResearchD poll | Sep 25 | 402 LV | 38.0 | 49.0 | Mast +11.0 |
Questions about this race
When is the Florida 21 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Florida 21 House race?
Frothier tracks James Martin (Democrat) against Brian Mast (Republican).
Who is leading the Florida 21 House race polls?
Brian Mast +13.5 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (James Martin 36.8%, Brian Mast 50.3%), as of October 21, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Florida 21 House race?
Frothier rates the race Likely R. Brian Mast has about a 94% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Florida 21 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on September 25, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.