Florida 27 House race
Eliott Rodriguez (D) and María Elvira Salazar (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 27. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Eliott Rodriguez at 44.4% and María Elvira Salazar at 47.6%, which is Salazar +3.2. That gives María Elvira Salazar a 65% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Rodriguez leads; below it Salazar leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Rodriguez (D) | Salazar (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD poll | Sep 13 | 600 LV | 46.0 | 47.0 | Salazar +1.0 |
| Bendixen & Amandi InternationalD poll | Aug 30 | 600 LV | 45.0 | 45.0 | Even |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.