Who is leading the Florida 8 House race polls?

Mike Haridopolos +11.5 in the Frothier average of 1 polls (Jennifer Jenkins 33.8%, Mike Haridopolos 45.3%), as of October 8, 2026.

Who is favored to win the Florida 8 House race?

Frothier rates the race Likely R. Mike Haridopolos has about a 90% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.

Florida 8 House race

Updated October 8, 2026 · 26 days until the November 3 election

Jennifer Jenkins (D) and Mike Haridopolos (R) are running for the House seat in Florida 8. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Jennifer Jenkins at 33.8% and Mike Haridopolos at 45.3%, which is Haridopolos +11.5. That gives Mike Haridopolos a 90% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.

Rating

Likely R

Set by the win estimate

Chance of winning

90%

Mike Haridopolos (R)

Polling average

Haridopolos +11.5

1 poll, newest Jul 18

Frothier estimate

Haridopolos +11.5

Give or take 9.1 points

Where the race stands

Jennifer JenkinsDemocrat

33.8%

Mike HaridopolosRepublican

45.3%

Chance of winning

Jenkins 10%Haridopolos 90%

How the polls have moved

The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Jenkins leads; below it Haridopolos leads.

Recent polls

Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.

Pollster	Ended	Sample	Jenkins (D)	Haridopolos (R)	Margin
Public Policy PollingD poll	Jul 18	633 RV	35.0	44.0	Haridopolos +9.0

How this estimate is made

Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.

Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.