Idaho 1 House race
Kaylee Peterson (D) and Russ Fulcher (R) are running for the House seat in Idaho 1. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Kaylee Peterson at 29.3% and Russ Fulcher at 47.1%, which is Fulcher +17.8. That gives Russ Fulcher a 98% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Peterson leads; below it Fulcher leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Peterson (D) | Fulcher (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | Jul 30 | LV | 27.0 | 48.0 | Fulcher +21.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Jul 14 | 480 LV | 35.0 | 45.0 | Fulcher +10.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.