Idaho 2 House race 2026: Gilbreath vs. Simpson polls
Ellie Gilbreath (D) and Mike Simpson (R) are running for the House seat in Idaho 2. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Ellie Gilbreath at 31.0% and Mike Simpson at 46.0%, which is Simpson +15.0. That gives Mike Simpson a 96% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.
About this race
This is the race for Idaho’s 2nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on October 22.
- Ellie Gilbreath (Democrat) is at 31.0% in the Frothier polling average.
- Mike Simpson (Republican) is at 46.0% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Gilbreath leads; below it Simpson leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Gilbreath (D) | Simpson (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus | Oct 22 | LV | 31.0 | 46.0 | Simpson +15.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the Idaho 2 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Idaho 2 House race?
Frothier tracks Ellie Gilbreath (Democrat) against Mike Simpson (Republican).
Who is leading the Idaho 2 House race polls?
Mike Simpson +15.0 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (Ellie Gilbreath 31.0%, Mike Simpson 46.0%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Idaho 2 House race?
Frothier rates the race Likely R. Mike Simpson has about a 96% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Idaho 2 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 22, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.