Illinois 4 House race
Patty Garcia (D) and Lupe Castillo (R) are running for the House seat in Illinois 4. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Patty Garcia at 34.0% and Lupe Castillo at 15.0%, which is Garcia +19.0. That gives Patty Garcia a 98% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Garcia leads; below it Castillo leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Garcia (D) | Castillo (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | Aug 3 | 653 RV | 34.0 | 15.0 | Garcia +19.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.