Iowa 1 House race
Christina Bohannan (D) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) are running for the House seat in Iowa 1. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Christina Bohannan at 40.0% and Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 35.0%, which is Bohannan +5.0. That gives Christina Bohannan a 71% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Bohannan leads; below it Miller-Meeks leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Bohannan (D) | Miller-Meeks (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | Jul 16 | 705 LV | 40.0 | 35.0 | Bohannan +5.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Jun 19 | 555 RV | 43.0 | 39.0 | Bohannan +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.