Iowa 2 House race
Lindsay James (D) and Joe Mitchell (R) are running for the House seat in Iowa 2. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Lindsay James at 44.7% and Joe Mitchell at 46.2%, which is Mitchell +1.5. That gives Joe Mitchell a 57% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line James leads; below it Mitchell leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | James (D) | Mitchell (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupD poll | Jul 19 | LV | 46.0 | 45.0 | James +1.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Apr 14 | 673 RV | 36.0 | 33.0 | James +3.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.