Kentucky 6 House race
Zach Dembo (D) and Ralph Alvarado (R) are running for the House seat in Kentucky 6. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Zach Dembo at 41.4% and Ralph Alvarado at 39.7%, which is Dembo +1.7. That gives Zach Dembo a 58% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Dembo leads; below it Alvarado leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Dembo (D) | Alvarado (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQRD poll | Sep 30 | 401 LV | 42.0 | 37.0 | Dembo +5.0 |
| Lake Research PartnersD poll | Aug 23 | LV | 45.0 | 44.0 | Dembo +1.0 |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD poll | Jul 30 | 474 LV | 47.0 | 47.0 | Even |
| GQRD poll | Jun 28 | LV | 39.0 | 42.0 | Alvarado +3.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Apr 25 | 675 RV | 37.0 | 37.0 | Even |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.