Maryland 1 House race
Dan Schwartz (D) and Andy Harris (R) are running for the House seat in Maryland 1. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Dan Schwartz at 37.8% and Andy Harris at 53.3%, which is Harris +15.5. That gives Andy Harris a 96% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Schwartz leads; below it Harris leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Schwartz (D) | Harris (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A ResearchD poll | Jul 27 | 482 LV | 39.0 | 52.0 | Harris +13.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.