New Hampshire 2 House race
Maggie Goodlander (D) and Lily Tang Williams (R) are running for the House seat in New Hampshire 2. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Maggie Goodlander at 55.0% and Lily Tang Williams at 35.0%, which is Goodlander +20.0. That gives Maggie Goodlander a 99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Goodlander leads; below it Williams leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Goodlander (D) | Williams (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 694 LV | 56.0 | 35.0 | Goodlander +21.0 |
| St. Anselm | Aug 18 | 701 LV | 50.0 | 35.0 | Goodlander +15.0 |
| St. Anselm | Jun 25 | 802 RV | 50.0 | 31.0 | Goodlander +19.0 |
| St. Anselm | Mar 18 | 739 RV | 48.0 | 36.0 | Goodlander +12.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 19 | 1,094 LV | 54.0 | 40.0 | Goodlander +14.0 |
| St. Anselm | Nov 19 | 1,102 RV | 40.0 | 35.0 | Goodlander +5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 23 | 508 LV | 51.0 | 39.0 | Goodlander +12.0 |
| St. Anselm | Aug 27 | 881 RV | 49.0 | 31.0 | Goodlander +18.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.