New Hampshire 1 House race 2026: Shaheen vs. DiLorenzo polls
Stefany Shaheen (D) and Anthony DiLorenzo (R) are running for the House seat in New Hampshire 1. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Stefany Shaheen at 46.0% and Anthony DiLorenzo at 42.0%, which is Shaheen +4.0. That gives Stefany Shaheen a 66% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
About this race
This is the race for New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 2 general-election polls of this race, and the newest ended on October 20.
- Stefany Shaheen (Democrat) is at 46.0% in the Frothier polling average.
- Anthony DiLorenzo (Republican) is at 42.0% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Shaheen leads; below it DiLorenzo leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Shaheen (D) | DiLorenzo (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Anselm | Oct 20 | 861 LV | 46.0 | 42.0 | Shaheen +4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 707 LV | 46.0 | 42.0 | Shaheen +4.0 |
Frothier coverage
Recent stories from the outlets Frothier tracks that name these candidates.
- Stefany Shaheen, Anthony DiLorenzo win New Hampshire primaries, CBS News projectsSep 9
- Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, wins New Hampshire House primarySep 9
- Anthony DiLorenzo, a Trump-Backed Auto Executive, Wins House Primary in New HampshireSep 9
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the New Hampshire 1 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the New Hampshire 1 House race?
Frothier tracks Stefany Shaheen (Democrat) against Anthony DiLorenzo (Republican).
Who is leading the New Hampshire 1 House race polls?
Stefany Shaheen +4.0 in the Frothier average of 2 polls (Stefany Shaheen 46.0%, Anthony DiLorenzo 42.0%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the New Hampshire 1 House race?
Frothier rates the race Lean D. Stefany Shaheen has about a 66% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the New Hampshire 1 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 20, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.