Rhode Island 2 House race
Seth M. Magaziner (D) and Victor Mellor (R) are running for the House seat in Rhode Island 2. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Seth M. Magaziner at 55.2% and Victor Mellor at 39.1%, which is Magaziner +16.1. That gives Seth M. Magaziner a 96% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely D.
Where the race stands
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Magaziner (D) | Mellor (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 11 | 406 LV | 55.2 | 39.1 | Magaziner +16.1 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.