Rhode Island 1 House race 2026: Amo vs. Keenan polls
Gabe Amo (D) and Kellie Keenan (R) are running for the House seat in Rhode Island 1. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Gabe Amo at 52.9% and Kellie Keenan at 29.5%, which is Amo +23.4. That gives Gabe Amo a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D.
About this race
This is the race for Rhode Island’s 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 2 general-election polls of this race, and the newest ended on October 11.
- Gabe Amo (Democrat) is at 52.9% in the Frothier polling average.
- Kellie Keenan (Republican) is at 29.5% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Amo leads; below it Keenan leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Amo (D) | Keenan (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 11 | 394 LV | 53.9 | 25.9 | Amo +28.1 |
| Embold Research | Oct 8 | LV | 52.0 | 33.0 | Amo +19.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the Rhode Island 1 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Rhode Island 1 House race?
Frothier tracks Gabe Amo (Democrat) against Kellie Keenan (Republican).
Who is leading the Rhode Island 1 House race polls?
Gabe Amo +23.4 in the Frothier average of 2 polls (Gabe Amo 52.9%, Kellie Keenan 29.5%), as of October 30, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Rhode Island 1 House race?
Frothier rates the race Safe D. Gabe Amo has about a >99% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Rhode Island 1 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 11, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.