South Carolina 7 House race
John Vincent (D) and Russell Fry (R) are running for the House seat in South Carolina 7. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has John Vincent at 35.5% and Russell Fry at 42.4%, which is Fry +6.9. That gives Russell Fry a 77% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Vincent leads; below it Fry leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Vincent (D) | Fry (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint PollingD poll | Jul 28 | 557 LV | 36.7 | 41.1 | Fry +4.4 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.