South Dakota At-Large House race
Nikki Gronli (D) and Marty Jackley (R) are running for the House seat in South Dakota At-Large. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Nikki Gronli at 41.8% and Marty Jackley at 48.3%, which is Jackley +6.5. That gives Marty Jackley a 76% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Gronli leads; below it Jackley leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Gronli (D) | Jackley (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research PartnersD poll | Aug 30 | 500 LV | 43.0 | 47.0 | Jackley +4.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.