Texas 15 House race 2026: Pulido vs. Cruz polls
Bobby Pulido (D) and Monica De La Cruz (R) are running for the House seat in Texas 15. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Bobby Pulido at 51.2% and Monica De La Cruz at 43.8%, which is Pulido +7.5. That gives Bobby Pulido a 80% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
About this race
This is the race for Texas’s 15th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 3 general-election polls of this race, and the newest ended on October 16.
- Bobby Pulido (Democrat) is at 51.2% in the Frothier polling average.
- Monica De La Cruz (Republican) is at 43.8% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Pulido leads; below it Cruz leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Pulido (D) | Cruz (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Oct 16 | LV | 51.0 | 44.0 | Pulido +7.0 |
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesD poll | Sep 28 | 400 LV | 54.0 | 41.0 | Pulido +13.0 |
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesD poll | Jul 27 | LV | 51.0 | 45.0 | Pulido +6.0 |
| ApplecartD poll | May 25 | 802 LV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Pulido +2.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Sep 11 | 533 RV | 38.0 | 41.0 | Cruz +3.0 |
Frothier coverage
Recent stories from the outlets Frothier tracks that name these candidates.
- Quinceañeras to Congress: Bobby Pulido Finds a New Way to Represent TejanosOct 1
- Bobby Pulido, a Texan Singer, Puts Republicans on DefenseSep 26
- Bobby Pulido is sick and tired of apologizingAug 6
Questions about this race
When is the Texas 15 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Texas 15 House race?
Frothier tracks Bobby Pulido (Democrat) against Monica De La Cruz (Republican).
Who is leading the Texas 15 House race polls?
Bobby Pulido +7.5 in the Frothier average of 3 polls (Bobby Pulido 51.2%, Monica De La Cruz 43.8%), as of October 21, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Texas 15 House race?
Frothier rates the race Lean D. Bobby Pulido has about a 80% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Texas 15 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 16, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.