Texas 23 House race 2026: Stout vs. Herrera polls
Katy Padilla Stout (D) and Brandon Herrera (R) are running for the House seat in Texas 23. Across 2 polls, the Frothier average has Katy Padilla Stout at 44.7% and Brandon Herrera at 47.2%, which is Herrera +2.5. That gives Brandon Herrera a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
About this race
This is the race for Texas’s 23rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 2 general-election polls of this race, and the newest ended on October 7.
- Katy Padilla Stout (Democrat) is at 44.7% in the Frothier polling average.
- Brandon Herrera (Republican) is at 47.2% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Stout leads; below it Herrera leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Stout (D) | Herrera (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesD poll | Oct 7 | LV | 46.0 | 46.0 | Even |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Mar 11 | 521 RV | 40.0 | 42.0 | Herrera +2.0 |
Frothier coverage
Recent stories from the outlets Frothier tracks that name these candidates.
Questions about this race
When is the Texas 23 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Texas 23 House race?
Frothier tracks Katy Padilla Stout (Democrat) against Brandon Herrera (Republican).
Who is leading the Texas 23 House race polls?
Brandon Herrera +2.5 in the Frothier average of 2 polls (Katy Padilla Stout 44.7%, Brandon Herrera 47.2%), as of October 21, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Texas 23 House race?
Frothier rates the race Tilt R. Brandon Herrera has about a 63% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Texas 23 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 7, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.