Texas 34 House race
Vicente Gonzalez (D) and Eric Flores (R) are running for the House seat in Texas 34. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Vicente Gonzalez at 45.0% and Eric Flores at 42.0%, which is Gonzalez +3.0. That gives Vicente Gonzalez a 63% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Gonzalez leads; below it Flores leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Gonzalez (D) | Flores (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | Aug 22 | 700 LV | 45.0 | 42.0 | Gonzalez +3.0 |
| Ragnar Research PartnersR poll | Jun 16 | 400 LV | 41.0 | 44.0 | Flores +3.0 |
| co/efficientR poll | Apr 29 | 777 LV | 40.0 | 41.0 | Flores +1.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.