Texas 9 House race
Leticia Gutierrez (D) and Alex Mealer (R) are running for the House seat in Texas 9. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Leticia Gutierrez at 37.8% and Alex Mealer at 46.3%, which is Mealer +8.5. That gives Alex Mealer a 82% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Gutierrez leads; below it Mealer leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Gutierrez (D) | Mealer (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Sep 19 | 560 RV | 39.0 | 45.0 | Mealer +6.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.