Texas 2 House race
Shaun Finnie (D) and Steve Toth (R) are running for the House seat in Texas 2. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Shaun Finnie at 35.8% and Steve Toth at 47.3%, which is Toth +11.5. That gives Steve Toth a 90% chance of winning, and the race is rated Likely R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Finnie leads; below it Toth leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Finnie (D) | Toth (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchD poll | Oct 4 | 501 LV | 37.0 | 46.0 | Toth +9.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.