Texas 28 House race
Henry Cuellar (D) and Tano Tijerina (R) are running for the House seat in Texas 28. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Henry Cuellar at 34.3% and Tano Tijerina at 40.8%, which is Tijerina +6.5. That gives Tano Tijerina a 76% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Cuellar leads; below it Tijerina leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Cuellar (D) | Tijerina (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulse Decision ScienceR poll | Jun 23 | 400 LV | 33.0 | 42.0 | Tijerina +9.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.