Vermont At-Large House race
Becca Balint (D) and Gerald Malloy (R) are running for the House seat in Vermont At-Large. Across 4 polls, the Frothier average has Becca Balint at 56.8% and Gerald Malloy at 30.0%, which is Balint +26.8. That gives Becca Balint a >99% chance of winning, and the race is rated Safe D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Balint leads; below it Malloy leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Balint (D) | Malloy (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braun Research | Sep 21 | 732 LV | 46.9 | 30.3 | Balint +16.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21 | 830 LV | 66.0 | 30.0 | Balint +36.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 20 | 949 LV | 63.0 | 25.0 | Balint +38.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23 | 872 LV | 57.0 | 26.0 | Balint +31.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.