Washington 3 House race
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and John Braun (R) are running for the House seat in Washington 3. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Marie Gluesenkamp Perez at 46.9% and John Braun at 48.0%, which is Braun +1.0. That gives John Braun a 54% chance of winning, and the race is rated Toss-up.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Perez leads; below it Braun leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Perez (D) | Braun (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | Sep 27 | 543 LV | 47.0 | 48.0 | Braun +1.0 |
| Emerson CollegeD poll | Jul 10 | 500 LV | 42.0 | 43.0 | Braun +1.0 |
| co/efficientR poll | Apr 29 | 982 LV | 34.0 | 41.0 | Braun +7.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.