Wisconsin 1 House race
Mitchell Berman (D) and Bryan Steil (R) are running for the House seat in Wisconsin 1. Across 3 polls, the Frothier average has Mitchell Berman at 46.7% and Bryan Steil at 48.7%, which is Steil +1.9. That gives Bryan Steil a 59% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt R.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Berman leads; below it Steil leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Berman (D) | Steil (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchD poll | Oct 1 | 500 LV | 48.0 | 47.0 | Berman +1.0 |
| DCCC Targeting TeamD poll | Sep 23 | 495 LV | 48.0 | 48.0 | Even |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Aug 9 | 400 LV | 48.0 | 49.0 | Steil +1.0 |
| Ragnar Research PartnersR poll | Mar 16 | 400 LV | 41.0 | 50.0 | Steil +9.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.