Wisconsin 3 House race
Rebecca Cooke (D) and Derrick Van Orden (R) are running for the House seat in Wisconsin 3. Across 5 polls, the Frothier average has Rebecca Cooke at 48.7% and Derrick Van Orden at 47.3%, which is Cooke +1.5. That gives Rebecca Cooke a 58% chance of winning, and the race is rated Tilt D.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Cooke leads; below it Orden leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Cooke (D) | Orden (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 ResearchD poll | Jun 25 | 535 LV | 50.0 | 46.0 | Cooke +4.0 |
| FM3 ResearchD poll | Jun 25 | 535 LV | 50.0 | 46.0 | Cooke +4.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | May 31 | 500 LV | 50.0 | 46.0 | Cooke +4.0 |
| Impact ResearchD poll | Feb 17 | 500 LV | 49.0 | 48.0 | Cooke +1.0 |
| Public Policy PollingD poll | Oct 15 | 609 RV | 44.0 | 42.0 | Cooke +2.0 |
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.