Connecticut 5 House race 2026: Hayes vs. Shea polls
Jahana Hayes (D) and Chris Shea (R) are running for the House seat in Connecticut 5. Across 1 poll, the Frothier average has Jahana Hayes at 52.3% and Chris Shea at 43.8%, which is Hayes +8.5. That gives Jahana Hayes a 82% chance of winning, and the race is rated Lean D.
About this race
This is the race for Connecticut’s 5th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Voters decide it on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Frothier has found 1 general-election poll of this race, and the newest ended on October 1.
- Jahana Hayes (Democrat) is at 52.3% in the Frothier polling average.
- Chris Shea (Republican) is at 43.8% in the Frothier polling average.
Where the race stands
How the polls have moved
The polling average over the last four months. Above the middle line Hayes leads; below it Shea leads.
Recent polls
Newest first. Polls paid for by a party or a campaign are tagged and count for half in the average.
| Pollster | Ended | Sample | Hayes (D) | Shea (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc.R poll | Oct 1 | 400 LV | 51.0 | 45.0 | Hayes +6.0 |
Compare with other trackers
See how other poll trackers read this race. These links open their sites in a new tab.
- RealClearPollingLatest House polls and averages
- 270toWinLatest 2026 House polls
- Silver BulletinNate Silver's 2026 House forecast
- FiftyPlusOneHouse general election polls
Questions about this race
When is the Connecticut 5 House race 2026?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Who is running in the Connecticut 5 House race?
Frothier tracks Jahana Hayes (Democrat) against Chris Shea (Republican).
Who is leading the Connecticut 5 House race polls?
Jahana Hayes +8.5 in the Frothier average of 1 poll (Jahana Hayes 52.3%, Chris Shea 43.8%), as of October 24, 2026.
Who is favored to win the Connecticut 5 House race?
Frothier rates the race Lean D. Jahana Hayes has about a 82% chance of winning. That is a probability, not a call.
How recent are the Connecticut 5 House race polls?
The newest poll ended on October 1, 2026.
How this estimate is made
Every general-election poll goes into one weighted average: newer, larger and likely-voter polls count for more, and no single pollster can flood it. House district estimates use polls alone, so they carry more uncertainty than statewide races. A win estimate is a probability, not a call: a candidate with a 70 percent chance loses three times in ten. Full method and sources.
Poll data from The New York Times poll database, CC BY 4.0, via PollResults.org. Averages, ratings and projections are Frothier calculations.